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☆ Weekly jobless claims jump to 231,000, the highest since August
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Initial filings for unemployment benefits hit their highest level since late August 2023 in a potential sign that an otherwise robust labor market is changing. Also, job openings have been declining amid expectations that the labor market is likely to slow through the year. The four-week moving average of claims, which helps smooth out weekly volatility in numbers, increased to 215,000, up 4,750 from the previous week. "One week does not a trend make, but we can no longer be sure that calm seas lie ahead for the US economy if today's weekly jobless claims are any indication." Markets reacted little to the jobless claims release, with stock market futures slightly negative and Treasury yields mixed.

Persons: Dow Jones, Christopher Rupkey, Robert Frick Organizations: Labor Department, Navy Federal Credit Union Locations: New York

☆ Retail sales rebounded in February amid higher gas prices
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-14 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Retail sales at stores, online and in restaurants rose 0.6% in February from the prior month, up from January’s revised 1.1% decline, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The broader US economy remains on strong footing, with employers continuing to hire and Americans still raking in strong wage gains. Sales were up across most categories last month, rising the most at home improvement stores, by a solid 2.2%. In February, car sales climbed 1.8%, purchases of electronics and appliances increased 1.5% and sales at restaurants rose 0.4%. Spending is heavily influenced by the state of the labor market, which remains solid.

Persons: don’t, ”, Robert Frick, “ It’s, “ Organizations: Washington CNN, Commerce Department, Consumers, Navy Federal Credit Union

☆ Consumer prices rose 0.4% in February and 3.2% from a year ago
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.4% for the month and 3.2% from a year ago, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.4% on the month and was up 3.8% on the year. Food costs were flat on the month, while shelter rose another 0.4%. With home prices expected to rise this year and rents falling only slowly, the long-awaited fall in shelter prices isn't coming to the rescue any time soon," said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. Patrick T. Fallon | AFP | Getty ImagesAirline fares posted a 3.6% increase, apparel prices rose 0.6% and used vehicles were up 0.5%.

Persons: Dow Jones, Robert Frick, February's, Patrick T, Fallon, Jerome Powell, Paul Ashworth Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dow, BLS, Navy Federal Credit Union, AFP, Getty, North, Capital Economics Locations: Redondo Beach , California, North America

☆ Key takeaways from the latest jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

“The economy remains strong, held up by a robust labor market,” wrote Christopher Rupkey, chief economist with FwdBonds, in a note Friday. Still, Friday’s jobs report also showed that the whopping gains initially recorded for January and December were revised down by a combined 167,000 jobs. January’s job gains now sit at an estimated 229,000 (down from the blowout 353,000); and December’s job growth at 290,000 (down from 333,000). In February, that included construction (up 23,000 jobs); transportation and warehousing (up 19,700 jobs); and retail (up 18,700 jobs). Friday’s jobs report showed that wage growth is indeed slowing.

Persons: ”, Christopher Rupkey, FwdBonds, “, ” Robert Frick, —, ” Diane Swonk, Swonk, February’s, ” Frick, Julissa Carielo, ” Swonk, Gus Faucher, Lydia Boussour, EY, Boussour, Janet Yellen, CNN’s Kate Bolduan, they’re, ” Yellen, Price, CNN’s Bryan Mena Organizations: New, New York CNN, of Labor Statistics, Navy Federal Credit Union, CNN, KPMG US, Health, Baby Boomers, Transportation Security Administration, DreamOn, Inc, Boomers, Fed, Labor, Federal, PNC Financial Services, “ Fed Locations: New York, San Antonio , Texas, Texas

☆ The US economy is so strong that there might not be any rate cuts in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-01 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Now, some economists think the Fed won’t cut interest rates at all this year. “The Fed will not cut rates this year and rates are going to stay higher for longer,” he added. Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin echoed the idea that the central bank may not cut interest rates this year. In some ways, the expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed undermined their efforts to actually cut the rates. Still, about half of investors are expecting an interest rate cut at the Fed’s June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Persons: —, that’s, Jerome Powell, Torsten Slok, “, Tom Barkin, ” Barkin, “ I’m, ” Robert Frick, ”, Powell Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Apollo Global Management, Richmond Federal, CNBC, Navy Federal Credit Union, CNN, Fed, National Federation of Independent, Investors, Financial Services, Senate Locations: New York, Richmond

The housing market began 2024 in the doldrums as housing starts and permits for new construction both fell, the Census Bureau reported on Friday. Starts fell 14.8%, way more than the flat reading expected by economists. “High mortgage rates, with maybe a dash of cold weather, caused starts and permits to fall from December. The optimism is a turnaround from August 2023, when 80% of small businesses surveyed said their long-term financial confidence was being negatively affected by the economy. Some 50% of small business owners said they were planning to expand in 2024.

Persons: didn’t, ”, Robert Frick, Lisa Sturtevant, Ksenia Potapov, “, they’re, Bill Dunkelberg Organizations: Census, Navy Federal Credit Union, MLS, “, National Federation of Independent Business, American Express Locations: American

The overall personal consumption expenditures price index rose 2% for the month, as did the core index that omits food and energy costs. On an annual basis, the overall index remained unchanged at 2.6% while the core fell to 2.9% from 3.2% in November. The rise in the core index was the slowest since the spring of 2021. The core index is often cited by Fed officials as their barometer for inflation. “The meeting statement is likely to drop the hawkish bias from its forward guidance, but stop short of signaling rate cuts.

Persons: ”, Robert Frick, “, Lydia Boussour, Jerome Powell, Jeremy Schwartz, Ruchir Sharma Organizations: Federal, Economic, Fed, Navy Federal Credit Union, Federal Reserve, Reserve, Nomura Securities, Nomura, Aichi Amemiya

Both are yet another indication that inflation has moderated from its pace of last year when consumer inflation was running at a 9.1% annual rate. “After fears of "sticky" and "persistent" inflation, the month to month slowing in the core pce readings is encouraging. Core pce has risen by 0.3% or less for 8 consecutive months. Political Cartoons on Inflation View All 19 Images"This report hit the trifecta,” said Navy Federal Credit Union corporate economist Robert Frick. “During October, mortgage rates were at their highest, and contract signings for existing homes were at their lowest in more than 20 years,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist.

Persons: ” Kathy Jones, ”, Robert Frick, “, Zumper, Lawrence Yun, Curt Long Organizations: Federal Reserve, pce, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Federal Credit Union, National Association of Realtors, NAR, Fed, Labor, National Association of Federal Credit Unions, Dow Jones Industrial Locations: “

☆ US existing home sales hit more than 13-year low; prices push higher
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"The combination of high prices, high mortgage rates, and millions of homeowners unwilling to move, given they've locked in low rates, has frozen the market," said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union in Vienna, Virginia. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home sales would slide to a rate of 3.90 million units. Existing home salesTIGHT SUPPLYThere were 1.15 million previously owned homes on the market last month, down 5.7% from a year ago. Most homeowners have mortgage rates under 5%, making many reluctant to sell. At October's sales pace, it would take 3.6 months to exhaust the current inventory of existing homes, up from 3.3 months a year ago.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Robert Frick, Freddie Mac, Lawrence Yun, Yun, Jeffrey Roach, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, WASHINGTON, National Association of Realtors, Navy Federal Credit Union, homebuyers, Reuters, Treasury, realtors, U.S, Congress, Builders, LPL Financial, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Vienna , Virginia, Northeast, West, Midwest, Charlotte , North Carolina

☆ Homebuilding bounced back in September
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Washington, DC CNN —US homebuilding bounced back in September, after dropping in August to the lowest levels since 2020 as mortgage rates climbed. Building permits dropped in September, falling 4.4% from August’s revised number to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.473 million. “Builders continue constructing smaller homes using less land, and offering incentives, but to build our way out of the housing shortage we’ll need mortgage rates well below current levels,” he said. Homebuilders are becoming increasingly anxious about persistently high mortgage rates and cooling demand, she said. “To keep buyers interested, many builders have been offering upgrades or buying down mortgage rates,” she said.

Persons: US homebuilding, ”, Robert Frick, Lisa Sturtevant, “, Sturtevant Organizations: DC CNN, US, Housing, Census, Navy Federal Credit Union, “ Builders, Bright MLS Locations: Washington

☆ Consumer prices rose 0.4% in September, more than expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The consumer price index, a closely followed inflation gauge, increased 0.4% on the month and 3.7% from a year ago, according to a Labor Department report Thursday. On a monthly basis, shelter accounted for more than half the rise in the CPI, the Labor Department said. On a 12-month basis, food costs climbed 3.7%, including a 6% increase for food away from home, while energy costs were off 0.5%. "That shelter and food costs rose particularly is especially painful." Correction: The Labor Department said Wednesday that prices at the wholesale level increased 0.5% in September.

Persons: Dow Jones, Robert Frick Organizations: Labor Department, Dow, CPI, Energy, Navy Federal Credit Union, Federal, Market Committee, Treasury

☆ US consumer confidence races to two-year high; house prices rising
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Summary Consumer confidence index increases to 117.0 in JulyLabor market differential rises to 37.2 from 32.5 in JuneHouse prices continue upward trend in MayWASHINGTON, July 25 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence increased to a two-year high in July amid a persistently tight labor market and receding inflation, bolstering the economy's prospects in the near term. That supports economists' views that consumer spending was flattening out after rising at its fastest pace in two years in the first quarter. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index increased to 117 this month, the highest reading since July 2021, from 110.1 in June. TIGHT LABOR MARKETThe survey's so-called labor market differential, derived from data on respondents' views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get, increased to 37.2 this month from 32.8 in June, a sign labor market conditions remain tight despite job growth slowing. And while more households planned to buy houses, they could run into affordability challenges as tight supply pushes up prices.

Persons: Robert Frick, Dana Peterson, Lisa Sturtevant, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: Labor, Conference, Federal Reserve, Consumers, Navy Federal Credit Union, The, Reuters, University of, Conference Board's, Fed, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Bright MLS, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, Vienna , Virginia, U.S

☆ Construction of new homes fell 8% in the US last month
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Builders are benefiting from the lack of existing homes for sale as owners hunker down, but higher mortgage rates pose a threat, said Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corporation. Holding household income constant, the increase in mortgage rates reduced home-buying power by approximately $10,000, Kushi said. “There remains pent-up demand in the housing market, but higher rates put a strain on affordability,” said Kushi. Builders remain ‘cautiously optimistic’Builder confidence remains high despite concerns about rising rates. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges market conditions and looks at current sales, buyer traffic and the outlook for sales of new construction homes over the next six months.

Persons: ”, Robert Frick, “, it’s, Odeta Kushi, Freddie Mac, Kushi, Alicia Huey, Robert Dietz, Dietz Organizations: DC CNN, Housing, Census, Navy Federal Credit Union, First American Financial Corporation, National Association of Home Builders, NAHB, Federal Reserve, Builders Locations: Washington, Wells Fargo

☆ US consumers' near-term inflation expectations hit two-year low; sentiment rises
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Summary Consumer sentiment index rises to 63.9 in June from 59.2One-year inflation expectations drop to 3.3% from 4.2%Long-run inflation expectations dip to 3.0% from 3.1%WASHINGTON, June 16 (Reuters) - U.S. consumers' near-term inflation expectations dropped to more than a two-year low in June and the outlook over the next five years improved slightly, according to a survey on Friday that also showed sentiment perking up. "The Fed will be gratified that the surge in inflation expectations in the late-1970s and early 1980s has not been repeated," said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital in New York. The University of Michigan survey's reading of one-year inflation expectations dropped to 3.3% this month, the lowest since March 2021, from 4.2% in May. The survey's preliminary reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at a four-month high of 63.9 in June compared with 59.2 in May. Its measure of consumer expectations rose to 61.3 from 55.4 last month.

Persons: Conrad DeQuadros, Joanne Hsu, Robert Frick, Lucia Mutikani, Daniel Wallis, Chizu Organizations: University of Michigan's, Fed, Wednesday, Brean, The University of Michigan, Treasury, Reuters, Consumers, Navy Federal Credit Union, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, New York, U.S, Washington, Vienna , Virginia

☆ US single-family homebuilding, permits rise in April
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Summary Single-family housing starts rise 1.6% in AprilSingle-family building permits increase 3.1%Overall housing starts climb 2.2%; permits fall 1.5%WASHINGTON, May 17 (Reuters) - U.S. single-family homebuilding increased in April, but data for the prior month was revised sharply lower, suggesting that the housing market slump was far from over even as some segments show signs of stabilizing. The rise in single-family housing starts last month reported by the Commerce Department on Wednesday was concentrated in the West, with the rest of the three regions reporting big declines. Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, rose 1.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 846,000 units last month. Single-family housing starts plunged 28.1% on a year-on-year basis in April. The single-family homebuilding backlog increased 4.5% to 139,000 units, while the completions rate for this segment dropped 6.5% to a rate of 971,000 units.

☆ New home sales rise as prices drop in January
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

CNN —New home sales rose in January from December, as mortgage rates eased off their highs of the past year at the start of 2023. Sales of new single‐family houses were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 670,000 last month, up from a revised 625,000 in December. Mortgage rates eased in January and ended the month nearly a point lower than they were at the beginning of November when they topped 7%. But in addition to volatile mortgage rates, another challenge for many buyers has been finding homes on the market to buy. “The backlog of new construction homes continues to emerge into the market just in time for the spring shopping season,” she said.

☆ Google parent Alphabet is cutting 12,000 jobs
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Clare Duffy | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —Google parent Alphabet is eliminating about 12,000 jobs, or 6% of its workforce, the company said Friday, in the latest cuts to shake the technology sector. “Over the past two years we’ve seen periods of dramatic growth,” Pichai said in the email. Google’s job cuts are just the latest in a bruising wave of tech layoffs, as inflation weighs on consumer spending and rising interest rates squeeze funding. “While layoffs from high-profile firms make the headlines, plenty of firms are desperate for more workers, especially tech workers. “The labor market is still so tight that many tech workers, and workers with other skills, are snapped up well before they need to collect an unemployment check.

☆ New home sales rose in November, defying expectations
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Meanwhile, the median price for a new home dropped to $471,200, down from $493,000 the previous month. But it was still higher than the median price a year ago, which was $430,000. “New home sales rose more than expected, but the big picture still is bleak for most Americans looking to buy,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. In early November, mortgage rates reached their high for the year – an average of 7.08% for a 30-year fixed-rate loan – and have been falling since. But for the first time since April, builders registered an increase in future sales expectations this month, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

☆ U.S. consumer confidence rebounds; existing home sales sink
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

"The outlook for consumer confidence in 2023 will hinge on the Fed's ability to deliver a soft landing on what could be described as a narrow runway." The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index increased to 108.3 this month, the highest reading since April, from 101.4 in November. While the survey places more emphasis on the labor market, the rebound in confidence matched a similar rise in the University of Michigan's sentiment index. The improvement, which mostly reflected lower gasoline prices, was in line with recent data showing consumer prices increasing moderately in November. But with the housing market in the doldrums, economists believe the labor market will loosen and unemployment increase next year.

☆ New home building retreated in November
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Washington CNN —Home building pulled back in November, as buyers faced spiking mortgage rates topping 7% that make homes increasingly unaffordable. Housing starts bounced back a bit in August while mortgage rates briefly retreated. But since that time, mortgage rates have been on the rise, hitting a 20-year high in October. One number that beat estimates was housing starts, he said, but those were weighted to apartments, not single-family homes. “Potential homebuyers should see some relief next year in the form of lower mortgage rates and possibly lower home prices,” said Frick.

☆ Consumer prices rose less than expected in November, up 7.1% from a year ago
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

watch nowStocks initially roared higher following the report, with futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average up more than 800 points initially before easing a bit. Falling energy prices helped keep inflation at bay. Food prices, however, rose 0.5% and were up 10.6% from a year ago. Even with its monthly decline, the energy index was higher by 13.1% from November 2021. Real average hourly earnings rose 0.5% for the month, though they were still down 1.9% from a year ago.

☆ Premarket stocks: Why the stock market is channeling Goldilocks
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

It’s rough out there, but there is a silver lining: Persistently high Inflation is showing signs of slowing. “This morning’s data was a Goldilocks report,” wrote Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance, in a note Thursday. Gas prices also dropped between October and November, which means that inflation could keep slowing. A range of factors have led to the drop in gas prices – and not all of them are positive. The bottom line: Gas prices are still relatively high for this time of the year, but looking ahead, some forecasters see gas prices continuing to dip.

☆ Mortgage rates fall for the second week in a row
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Mortgage rates dropped again this week, after plunging nearly half a percentage point last week. Mortgage rates have risen throughout most of 2022, spurred by the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented campaign of hiking interest rates in order to tame soaring inflation. But last week, rates tumbled amid reports that indicated inflation may have finally reached its peak. The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. As a result of the drop in mortgage rates, both purchase and refinance applications picked up slightly last week.

☆ Premarket stocks: Big Tech can't save your investments
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

But disappointing earnings from Big Tech stocks have the tendency to turn the broader market south thanks to their immense market value. Beyond determining market sentiment, tech earnings also offer important clues about where the economy is heading. In particular, sales growth in the cloud business – one of the company’s biggest bright spots in recent years – was lower than analysts had hoped. Its fiscal second-quarter forecast came in short of Wall Street estimates, sending shares down 8% on Wednesday. A slowing economy, geopolitical chaos and heightened inflation have all worked to dry up the number of IPOs and mergers and acquisitions made on Wall Street.

☆ Job openings plunged by more than 1.1 million in August
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-04 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The number of job openings plunged by more than a million in August, providing a potential early sign that the massive U.S. labor gap is beginning to close. One primary area of interest for the central bank has been the ultra-tight labor market, which had been showing about two job openings for every available worker. "Job openings took a major dive in August, falling by more than about 1 million, but they still total more than 10 million. The rate remains one full percentage point below where it was in February 2020, just prior to the pandemic. Markets still expect the Fed to push forward with a fourth consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate hike at its next meeting.

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